Early studies asked people almanac-type trivia questions or had them make predictions of political elections participants were later asked to recall their predictions. That retroactive belief that the outcome was obvious from the start is hindsight bias.Īlthough hindsight bias can be identified throughout human history, the phenomenon was first described and studied as such in the 1970s by psychologists who were investigating errors in human decision making. For example, when asked whether people prefer to spend time with others who are similar or with others who differ significantly (in beliefs, background, and the like), individuals can easily explain why either outcome is likely, often by drawing on conventional wisdom: some may claim that “birds of a feather flock together,” whereas others may argue that “opposites attract.” Once an experiment has shown support for only one outcome, however, participants often believe that the result is “obvious,” and they minimize or do not even entertain the alternative reasoning. Presented with two opposing predictions, most people are able to justify the likelihood of either outcome. Hindsight bias is colloquially known as the “I knew it all along phenomenon.” It is a type of confirmation bias. Hindsight bias, the tendency, upon learning an outcome of an event-such as an experiment, a sporting event, a military decision, or a political election-to overestimate one’s ability to have foreseen the outcome. SpaceNext50 Britannica presents SpaceNext50, From the race to the Moon to space stewardship, we explore a wide range of subjects that feed our curiosity about space!. Learn about the major environmental problems facing our planet and what can be done about them!
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